The Cadastre of Capital Goods Corporation estimates that 488 investment projects will create 120.374 jobs in the first quarter of 2016.

New projects of licenses and public infrastructure announced by the government will compensate the low demand of workforce caused by the delay of mining and energetic projects. This is one of the conclusions of the last employment report by the Capital Goods Corporation (CBC), based on the portfolio of private and public projects that shall be in the construction process during the five years period 2014-2018.

Considering available data from the end of the fourth quarter of 2014, CBC estimates that the largest amount of direct jobs shall emerge during the first three months of 2016, with 120.374 people distributed among 488 projects that shall be developing simultaneously. This represents a 1.8% increase (2.205 people) when compared to the maximum estimated in the previous quarter.

However, when considering the evolution of estimations for the period 2014-2018 in comparison to the previous study, a reduction of workforce demand in 2015 followed by an increase during the first semester of 2016 is observed. By the second semester of 2016 up to 2018, a decrease is observed once again.

According to CBC, the main causes of adjustment are the displacement or elimination from the chronogram of some initiatives, most of them from the energy and mining industries. The reason is the lack of financing, delays in obtaining permits, existence of judicial processes and changes in the market’s conditions.

This last factor particularly damages the mining sector, together with environmental evaluations of the projects that have led some companies to continue with their current operations and abandon massive projects. Another variable that affect estimations are modifications of the chronogram of projects of the structural plan of Codelco.

According to CBC, the consequences of these series of facts were partly compensated by the development of a significant amount of new projects corresponding to the licenses and public infrastructure portfolio announced by the authorities. The effect shall be stronger in 2017 and 2018.

The largest demand shall be focused in the Metropolitan region, with 46.677 jobs, followed by Antofagasta, with 31.215, Valparaíso, with 16.635, and Biobío, with 12.540 new jobs during 2014-2018.

HISTORIC EVOLUTION

The average contribution of jobs in investment projects in the building phase has shifted during the past three years between 100 thousand and 122 thousand.

The peak was reached during the first quarter of 2014, while in the last quarter of the same year, after three consecutive drops, an average of 112.687 persons was registered, the lowest figure since the beginnings of 2013. This is based on the level of maturity of initiatives and the lower factor of replacement of investments observed in the cadastre, which coincides with a drop of private investment and the slowdown of the economy.

For the first four months of 2015, another fall is expected: considering the entire portfolio in every stage, an average of 105.782 persons is expected.

Source: La Tercera