The agenda of technological singularity states that during the next two decades we will witness more changes than during the past two millenniums. Regardless the real reach of these changes, Latin America must take a proactive role.

A lot is being said and written about the deep changes we are living. What really matters is what we do with those transformations that are having an impact on our societies.

Basically, the challenges that the future brings may be addressed with a passive attitude, doing nothing at all; with a reactive attitude, trying to respond to changes; with preactive attitude, preparing for those changes; or with a proactive attitude, assuming a leading role in the creation of this future.

Without any doubts, the region should actively work on these last two attitudes. Clearly, that is not the case.

There are some certainties in this volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous context. I believe that four of them are very important:

• Technological development will determine the future,
• Education and training of skills based on demand are key to generate human capital.
• Work will be wherever there is a suitable business environment and pertinent talent.
• Manufacture is becoming “mindfacture”, with a strong preponderance of services, even in productive processes.
• Life expectancy is growing and it is a process that seems like it will continue to move forward.

I understand singularity as a distinctive human feature, considering the human being as a bio-social-cultural animal. I also take into account the concept of emotional singularity, in the sense of the importance for an individual to be aware of his/her singular relational construction regarding the associations between experiences and feelings for his/her personal development. I cannot omit the singularity of ethics, which is in constant tension with the uniformity of moral. However, the agenda of the future refers to another idea of singularity: technological singularity.

Those in charge of this agenda refer to the convergence of the four big technologies of the future: nanotechnology, biotechnology, infotechnology, and cognotechnology. This convergence, they say, will signal the moment in which artificial intelligence shall reach human intelligence.

Such moment will demand a major growth of some sectors, including education, health, food, energy, among others. But basically every sector will endure deep transformations.

As regards the fifth point I mentioned, the increase of life expectancy, the singularity agenda goes way beyond and states that in the next 20 or 30 years, physical aging and rejuvenation processes will be controllable, which will significantly expand life expectancy. The boldest are talking about “the death of death”.

Without going into religious considerations (which exist and would be many from the most diverse theological sources), it seems interesting to explore whether the anguish towards death may become the anguish towards immortality. We are not ready for that!

Those who expect this future, propose a cleaner, more ethical and socially responsible environment. They imagine a future in which ham does not involve a pig, but mother cells and 3D printing, with a process fuelled by renewable energies. Such an environment will include the reduction in the number of current jobs and the creation of new jobs.

What would happen if, in Latin America, just like in Jose Saramago’s book, Death at intervals, one day people stop dying?

We might not be ready to even think such a disruptive situation but, what would happen today if Latin America had twice the number of elderly people it currently has?

Surely, we would have a major inconvenience. The magnitude of the problem would have social, political, economic, health and infrastructure impacts, among others. It is very important to understand this is a problem we will have 30 years from now if we do not act quickly and simultaneously in several directions.

Today, the working age population grows faster than the total population, and grants us with a demographic window of opportunity. We are living a suitable transition period to generate wealth, as long as we properly train young people and create jobs so that the working age population does, indeed, produce.

This period will coincide with a transformation of labour, in which many jobs will go missing and shall be replaced by the technologies we mentioned before, while many others, those that are not routine and demand new human skills, will abound. However, the typical permanent labour contract is giving place to diverse forms of work that must be regulated for workers to get social benefits. We must act quickly to make the most of this period but, what must we do?

There is not a unique answer to this question. Nevertheless there are data, evidences and trends that are worth taking into consideration:

• In knowledge societies, education is the only way to accumulate human capital. It is urgent to generate equal opportunities to access quality education. We need more people to learn more and better cognitive, socioemotional and technical skills, while they learn by doing. Promoting professional practices, apprenticeships and other forms of learning at work is key. It is also necessary to consolidate the idea of life-long learning, generating awareness among citizens of the obligation of learning to unlearn in order to relearn, taking full responsibility for their own employability.

• Increasing labour participation is mandatory. Young people, women and elderly adults are groups that demand more stimulus. We must generate mechanisms that make it easier for youth and women to enter the labour market, and that enable reinsertion or expand the working life among elderly adults. Also, we must favour the diversity of working forms to adapt to the needs of companies. The Nordic model of flexicurity offers proper balance between the flexibility that organizations require and the security that workers need. Training of skills based on demand and agile placement in the labour market are key. The articulation of private and public employment services is a successful strategy to implement the concept of flexicurity in an inclusive way.

• An aging population demands larger expenditures. We cannot keep the same pension systems with such changes in demographic trends. We must re-design these systems considering every country’s peculiarities. Portable and transferable social rights are needed for adaptation.

• Encouraging saving and linking it to investment is key. We must reach the virtuous circle that comes from investment, growth and savings to get what is called a second demographic dividend.

• Exploring and developing pilot tests to implement universal basic income will be necessary to restrain technological unemployment and reconvert those workers that fall behind.

We are getting older. Before that, we must be productive and generate wealth in our countries to achieve sustainable societies. The capacity to generate consensus will be key to implement urgent actions.

About Martin Padulla

Founder and Managing Director of staffingamericalatina. Martin Padulla is Sociologist (USAL), MBA (UCA) and labour markets expert. He published “Flexible Work in South America” and “Regulatory framework for private employment agencies in Latin America” two books about the new realities of work in Latin America.

Follow Martín Padulla on Twitter: @MartinPadulla

mpadulla@staffingamericalatina.com

About staffingamericalatina

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